On August 11, 2024, I predicted that Vladimir Putin would nuke a place like Bakhmut imminently. Why did I make that prediction? Because, at our core, Beacon of Speech is a reactionary website.
No nation with nuclear capabilities had ever had foreign invaders on its soil, and I thought Putin would want to nuke something in a fit of rage. But Russia isn't run by Fred Hunt, angry writer, it is run by an evil, but patient, tactician.
When Putin invaded Ukraine, deep down, was the American Government surprised? No. Putin had amassed troops at the Ukrainian border for weeks and just sat them there. I read article after article in the British Tabloids that Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Why did Putin wait? He didn't want to upstage his ally, Xi Jinping, who was glowing in the international spotlight of the 2022 Winter Olympics.
When Yevgeny Prigozhin may, or may not, have tried to stage a coup, Putin was embarrassed on the national stage. Did he have Prigozhin dragged out in the streets and shot? No. Prigozhin "accidentally" died in a plane crash a few weeks later. Why did Putin wait? The Wagner Group is a convenient tool for Putin to achieve his means and is still very active in Africa and the Middle East. Putin wanted to keep the Wagner Group operational, without its troublesome leaders. That's why all his enemies were conveniently on the same plane.
When Joseph Stalin was in power, he simply executed his enemies, no one could stop Stalin. But Stalin wasn't a tactician, he killed indiscriminately and without purpose. When Putin invaded Ukraine, he believed that Ukraine would crumple at his feet. When that didn't happen, Putin was happy to grind the pace of the conflict down to a war of attrition. Putin still believes that his ultimate goal of securing Crimea as a Russian territory is going to happen, but by not taking the energy rich southeastern section of Ukraine quickly, alternate goals were achieved. Why did Putin wait? Right now, tens of thousands of Ukrainians Troops are dead. Putin wins because in a war of attrition, the country with more troops wins. But many of the Russian Soldiers who died weren't the Elite Russian Troops, but infantryman from Russian jails and the Russian countryside. Putin didn't execute Russian undesirables, like Stalin did, young prisoners died as heroes for the Glory of Russia, taking an inch of Ukrainian land for each dead body.
Russian Military Bloggers continue to scream that it's almost like Putin is TRYING to get his soldiers killed.
Uhhh-
Which brings us to Ukraine's counter-offensive. The Ukrainian Army is still taking prisoners and bombing hard targets inside a small patch of land, relatively speaking, inside of Russia. Putin is not scrambling his elite forces to expel the invaders. Why is Putin waiting?
Many Western observers claim that Putin was caught off guard by the Kursk Offensive. For a guy who likes to play chess with human lives, I find that very hard to believe.
I still think Putin has set a trap in Kursk. He is sacrificing a Pawn to gain a Queen, so to speak. What in the hell does that mean? I guarantee you, Putin wants to use that nuke, he wants to show the world that he has brass balls and he's not to be f***ed with. But if he indiscriminately uses that nuke in Ukraine, even Putin's allies in China and India will turn on him. That's why Beacon of Speech's initial analysis was wrong.
Here's what I speculate is going to happen:
Vladimir Putin is going to use that Nuke on September 10, 2024. He is going to drop that Nuke in Russian Territory on the largest gathering of Ukrainian troops near the Russian city of Sudza. How can I be so precise?
Putin wants to sway the American Election: The date is significant because Putin will cite repeated failures of the Biden/Harris administration that "made" him use the weapon. Such an event will rattle Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris in the debates. If Trump is supposedly behind in all the polls, a nuclear "October Suprise" could kill his chances...or it could make the Democrats look like detached buffoons.
Putin will repeatedly reiterate the term "Defensive Weapon": Putin's allies, such as China's Xi and India's Modi, will claim that since Putin used the weapon within his own territory, on foreign troops, that he's well within his rights in reference to international law in regard to sovereignty. Xi will continue to stand by Putin as long as he claims "self-defense."
Ukrainian soldiers will not hold their lines. The Ukrainian Army will not be ready for such carnage and will retreat on all fronts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be forced to surrender at current battlefield lines. If Putin is truly done fighting with Ukraine, he will want to end the battle on his terms. Ukraine will have no choice in the matter, they signed away their nuclear arsenal in the Budapest Memorandum.
I keep saying that the invasion of Ukraine is not about World Domination, it is about strengthening what Vladimir Putin considers as Russia.
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